Where did all the money go? by Julie Paulling
During the recent unpleasantness of the stock market, I’ve
been hearing some really horrifying statistics.
One day the newspaper gleefully reported that Americans have lost 3
Trillion Dollars from our retirement accounts.
That is a number most of us couldn’t begin to comprehend, and the
question on everyone’s mind is ‘Where did all the money go?’ If we lost 3,000,000,000,000 dollars, it must
be somewhere! Visions of evil old Mr.
Potter stealing George Bailey’s money come to mind.
Unfortunately, it really isn’t so simple to figure out who
has our money. I’ve had several people
ask me this question lately, so I though I would try to lay it out for you, on
the off chance you’ve been wondering too.
A share of stock is a tiny piece of ownership in a
company. The stock we have today is
known as ‘limited liability’ stock, which means that, even though you own a
part of a company, your personal liability for what that company does is
limited. In other words, if you own
stock in Inc and the management of Inc takes out huge loans, steals the money,
and takes off for Argentina, you are not responsible for paying back those loans. This seems obvious to us now, but it really
was a huge advance in investment products.
Of course, you do have some liability for the debts of the
company, but only up to the price you paid for your share of stock. That means that if the company goes out of
business you most likely won’t get anything back for your worthless stock.
The stock market is a place that buyers and sellers of stock
come together to trade. It works like a
big auction – the value of a share of stock is no more or less than what some
buyer is willing to pay at that moment.
If lots of people think Inc company is doing well and will be in
business for a long time, they may put in an order to buy some of Inc’s stock. If there are a lot of buyers compared to the
number of people willing to part with their precious Inc stock, the price goes
up. If the company has had some recent
bad news and lots of people think right now may not be the best time to own Inc
stock, the price will go down.
Starting a couple of weeks ago, a lot of people heard some
very bad news at the same time – US Banks made far too many loans to far too
many people who had little or no chance of paying them back. This put the banks into a tough spot, and
investors realized the possible bad things that could happen to the economy
from here:
-
Banks have less money to lend to businesses who
need loans to cover growth and expansion, not to mention daily activity
-
Companies that can’t borrow money when they need
to may have trouble growing, or even staying in business
-
Companies that go out of business put people out
of work
-
Out of work people spend less money at shop and
restaurants, which likely leads to more companies going out of business.
-
No one has the slightest idea which companies
are most likely to go out of business (no one really saw Wachovia coming).
-
People who lose their jobs might need to move to
another town to find work. Because so
many other people have lost their jobs, it suddenly harder to sell their
houses.
It has been said that the ‘markets’ (meaning any place
things are bought and sold like oil, stock, gold, wheat, and even money) run on
two emotions, Greed and Fear. When the
entire economy started looking shaky, Fear took over from greed in a big way. Suddenly many more people wanted to sell their
shares of stock than wanted to buy them, and logically, prices started to
fall. The markets move on ever scrap of
news and rumor that is heard, so the stock market has been going up and down
every day, and many times during the day.
But more down than up. And no one
knows how far down it will eventually go (we say that the stock market goes up
or down by looking at what is happening to the shares of some or all of the
companies being sold on it. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average – the most commonly sited measure of the market – is
actually made up of the value of the shares of only 30 companies. But they are 30 of the biggest and most
important to our economy.)
All this is interesting (or not), but it still doesn’t
answer the question – Where did the money go?
The answer is, it was never there. Not really.
When you buy a share of stock for, say, $10, that stock will go up and
down in value for the entire time you own it.
You may look at the value in the newspaper every day, or you may just
check it out in your quarterly investment statement. But all anyone can tell you is what your
stock would be worth if your sold it right now.
If you don’t sell it, you have gains and losses, but they are unrealized
– you don’t really gain or lose until you sell.
What has happened to most of us over the last 4 weeks is that stocks we
bought a long time ago (or even a week ago) which had gone up in value,
suddenly fell. They may have fallen
below what we paid for them – that level is different for everyone – or they
may just be lower than they were a few days ago. But the truth is, if you don’t sell your
stock right now, you haven’t lost anything.
It feels like you have. If
someone told you your house was worth $200,000, and when you sold it you could
only get $100,000, you would feel like you had ‘lost’ money. But that money only ever existed in
potential. It wasn’t realized.
That doesn’t stop most of us from feeling poorer, but if you
choose to keep your investments and not sell them just now – while everyone is
panicking – your chances of the value going up again are pretty good. Warren Buffet, one of the most successful
investors in the history of our economy announced on Friday that he is
investing heavily in the US stock market right now because he thinks it has
fallen so far down that there is a great opportunity to make money in the long
run. Not over a week, or a month, or
maybe a year, but he believes the companies that make up the US stock market
will eventually show greater value and become sought after again – so the
prices will go back up. He said he makes
it a rule to ‘Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are
fearful’. I have no idea if he is right,
but it is the most optimistic thing I’ve read all week!
Please let me know if you have any questions or if this was
just too boring for words. This is a fun
blog, after all.